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Canadian recession is likely without fiscal stimulus: Scotiabank


Canada is likely to fall into a recession this year unless the government moves ahead with robust fiscal stimulus as the economy takes a double hit from the coronavirus and tanking oil prices, according to the Bank of Nova Scotia.

Scotiabank is the first of the six largest Canadian banks to predict the country could be headed into a recession, though it believes the government will move quickly enough to avert one. A rapid rise in coronavirus cases globally, the sharp fall in oil prices and volatility in financial markets make a contraction in the second and third quarters this year “likely” in the absence of fiscal measures, Jean-François Perrault, chief economist at Scotiabank, said Wednesday.

“A reasonably mild recession appears likely unless timely and targeted fiscal measures are deployed in the very near future to deal with the economic impacts of the virus,” Perrault wrote in a research note.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau released $1.1 billion in new funding earlier Wednesday in response to the virus, and said the government is ready to do more if necessary. Trudeau also said his government is prepared to use federal financing agencies to further stimulate the economy if needed, a measure that was deployed during the 2008-09 financial crisis.

But that may not be enough. Canada’s measures pale in comparison to those set out by countries such as Italy, which plans to spend as much as 25 billion euros ($28.3 billion) on stimulus measures. Perrault recommends the government roll out a fiscal package equivalent to one per cent of GDP, or just over $20 billion, in order to prevent the Canadian economy from going into recession.

The Toronto-based bank sees the country’s gross domestic product growth slowing to 0.3 per cent for the year in the absence of significant stimulus. Scotiabank’s isn’t the first bearish call to emerge this week in the aftermath of the oil price collapse but it does represent the most aggressive take yet on Canada’s future.

National Bank of Canada Financial and Royal Bank of Canada will release their forecasts later this week. Bank of Montreal was the first of the six banks to revise their forecasts lower this week, with a call for full year GDP growth at 0.5 per cent.

The latest stream of downward revisions include predictions that the Bank of Canada will cut rates to 0.25 per cent by June from its current 1.25 per cent. That’s in line with financial market expectations, according to overnight index swaps trading. The last time the Bank of Canada policy rate reached 0.25 per cent was in 2009. Earlier this month, the central bank cut interest rates by 50 basis points amid escalating coronavirus concerns, matching an emergency move by the Federal Reserve.

Here are the latest revisions from bank economists this week:

Scotiabank — Jean-François Perrault

Sees Canada’s 2020 GDP at 0.3 per cent in absence of substantial fiscal stimulus and 0.7 per cent if there is fiscal stimulus worth one per cent of GDP. Without fiscal stimulus, Q2 and Q3 GDP will contract. Expects the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at the next two meetings.

Bank of Montreal — Michael Gregory

Lowers 2020 GDP to 0.5 per cent from one per cent, and sees Q2 contracting by 3.5 per cent. Expects Bank of Canada to cut rates by 100 basis points over the next two meetings to 0.25 per cent.

JPMorgan — Silvana Dimino

Revises down 2020 forecast to one per cent or 1.1 per cent Q4/Q4 basis. Predicts no growth in Q2 and a two per cent rebound in Q3. Expects Bank of Canada to cut by 50 basis points in April with the “heightened risk” for an earlier emergency cut to zero per cent.

Goldman Sachs — Daan Struyven

Revises down 2020 GDP to 0.4 per cent or 0.2 per cent on a Q4/Q4 basis. Sees Canada on “verge of recession” with a zero per cent Q1, -0.5 per cent Q2, 0.25 per cent Q3 and one per cent Q4. Expects Bank of Canada to lower policy rate to 0.25 per cent by its June meeting.

 — With assistance from Erik Hertzberg and Kait Bolongaro

Bloomberg.com



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Canadian economy faces a prolonged period of sluggish growth


Canada’s economy is shifting into a lower gear as some of the country’s growth drivers begin to lose steam.

Statistics Canada will release third-quarter gross domestic product numbers Friday that will probably show a sharp drop in growth. According to the median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg survey, the country’s expansion slowed to a 1.3 per cent annualized pace in the three months through September, down from an unsustainable clip of 3.7 per cent in the prior period.

It’s a return to sluggish growth that may become the new normal for a Canadian economy seeing many of its engines of growth sputter, from investment and exports to weakening consumption as the nation’s households cope with high debt levels.

Beyond the third quarter, economists predict another 1.3 per cent reading in the final three months of 2019. Next year doesn’t look much better, with growth seen running at about 1.5 per cent in 2020. That’s a sufficiently prolonged period of below-potential growth for markets to anticipate the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates as early as January.

Canada’s exporters have floundered in the second half of the year. After a rebound in oil shipments temporarily boosted real exports in the second quarter, they’ve since flat-lined, falling 0.3 per cent since June in volume terms. Waning exports are also hitting manufacturers, whose shipment volumes decreased 1 per cent in the third quarter, led downward by oil and coal.

You don’t have a domestic demand story that’s strong

Brett House, deputy chief economist at Scotiabank

Business investment remains sluggish, down 22 per cent since oil prices began collapsing in 2014. While the Bank of Canada’s latest indicator of business activity ticked up, the central bank still sees investment as a 0.4 percentage point drag on 2019 growth. Until global uncertainty and trade tensions abate, Canadian businesses are unlikely to make major capital expenditures.

Consumption has long propelled Canada’s economic growth, but cracks may be forming, even with a robust job market and wages growing at the fastest pace in a decade. Economists expect consumption to pick up in the second half of the year, but that’s coming off a second quarter that was the slowest since 2012. The lack of vigour is most apparent in a retail sector that’s seen volumes flat over the past year.

“You don’t have a domestic demand story that’s strong,” said Brett House, deputy chief economist at Scotiabank.

One bright spot in the GDP numbers could be housing, which has rebounded as borrowing costs decline and buyers adjust to tighter mortgage rules. Home sales rose 7.3 per cent in the third quarter, the fastest quarterly pace since the end of 2017. Most economists estimate residential investment picked up for a second straight quarter.

Bloomberg.com





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